Disease risk modeling, fungicide ROI science, epidemic progression analysis, and resistance risk scoring — grounded in USDA ARS plant pathology and IPM research.
Official USDA price received and yield data by commodity, state, and year. Price auto-populates Storage Loss market price (SF17-S.003). Yield provides per-acre quantity reference for drying and storage calculators.
Source: USDA NASS QuickStats. Reference data used as fallback. Not endorsed by NASS.
Monthly USDA WASDE forecast — U.S. production, use, ending stocks, and projected season-average price. Use alongside NASS actuals to stress-test storage loss and drying calculations against forecast price scenarios.
Source: USDA FAS PSD Online (WASDE-aligned monthly forecast). Reference data used as fallback.
Side-by-side view of NASS historical actuals versus USDA WASDE forecast. Fetch both sources first, then select a commodity to compare. Use the price difference to run scenario analysis in the economics calculators.
Tip: Use the WASDE forecast price in economics calculators to model best-case / worst-case ROI scenarios alongside the NASS actual.
Estimate foliar disease infection risk using temperature, leaf wetness duration, and crop growth stage. Based on USDA-ARS infection period models for wheat rust, gray leaf spot, and Fusarium head blight.
Calculate breakeven yield response, net return on fungicide investment, and economic threshold. Uses USDA-ARS fungicide efficacy trial data and commodity price integration.
Model temporal disease progress using logistic and Gompertz epidemic equations. Calculate area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) and projected yield loss. Based on USDA-ARS epidemiological modeling research.
Assess fungicide resistance development risk based on application frequency, mode of action diversity, and pathogen characteristics. Generates integrated disease management recommendations per USDA-ARS resistance guidelines.
Built on USDA-ARS Plant Pathology Research Unit science — AgrStak SF17 science calculators translate federal plant disease research into actionable farm-level decisions. From disease risk assessment and epidemic spread modeling to fungicide resistance risk, these 4 models support agronomists, crop consultants, and farmers managing foliar disease pressure across row crops and specialty crops.
Models integrate USDA-ARS infection period research, fungicide efficacy trial data, and integrated disease management (IDM) guidelines. Part of AgrStak's 431-model platform — patent pending.