Grower revenue loss modeling under quarantine restrictions, shipper and handler compliance cost analysis, and APHIS PPQ program benefit-cost ratio assessment — anchored to USDA NASS California commodity production values, APHIS PPQ program economic data, and stakeholder impact frameworks from DA-2026-10.
Regulatory anchor: USDA APHIS DA-2026-10 (March 16, 2026) · USDA NASS California 2024 Commodity Data · APHIS PPQ Exotic Fruit Fly Program Economics · APHIS–CDFA–FAO–IAEA Collaboration
3 Economics Models
SF28-E.001 – E.003
EC.4007 Mexfly SIT Standalone
🏛️ Federal Quarantine Economics
⚠️
Active Federal Quarantine: USDA APHIS DA-2026-10 March 16, 2026 — Mexfly quarantine, La Mesa, San Diego County, CA. 82 sq miles. No commercial ag in current zone. Primary economic exposure: SD County’s ~17,000 avocado acres (~$487M) and citrus holdings if zone expands northward. Program contacts: Catherine Marzolf 386-666-9932 | Glorimar Marrero 240-577-4633.
🧪 SF28-EC.4007 — Mexfly SIT Economic Cost-Benefit — Full standalone calculator modeling Sterile Insect Technique deployment economics: SIT vs conventional treatment vs eradication, cost per sterile fly release, suppression efficiency, and 10-year avoided loss NPV. Anchored to APHIS–CDFA–Mexico joint SIT program and IAEA SIT economics.
Fetch APHIS program economics + NASS commodity + collaboration data
Program BCR: not loaded|NASS Revenue: not loaded|Collaborations: not loaded✓ All sources loaded — ready to calculate
📊 APHIS Program BCR
🍊 NASS CA Commodities
🤝 Collaborations & Subscriptions
Click ⚡ Fetch All to load APHIS PPQ program economics data.
Fruit Fly Program BCR
7:1 to 12:1
benefit-cost ratio
Annual Excl. Benefit
$1.5B+
avoided losses/yr (est.)
Mexfly Eradication
12–36 mo
typical timeline
APHIS PPQ Budget
~$370M
FY2025 annual
SIT Cost/Sq Mile/Yr
$4,200
sterile fly release
Protein Bait $/Sq Mi
$620
per sq mile/yr
Click ⚡ Fetch All to load USDA NASS California commodity revenue data.
CA Avocado
$487M
2024 total value
CA Citrus Total
$2.1B
2024 total value
CA Stone Fruit
$892M
2024 total value
Avocado $/acre
$9,200
avg revenue/acre
Citrus $/acre
$4,800
avg revenue/acre
SD County Total Ag
$1.8B
2023 annual
Click ⚡ Fetch All to load APHIS collaboration and subscription data.
💰 Grower Revenue Loss Model
Model SF28-E.001
Model total grower revenue loss under a Mexfly quarantine scenario — combining direct losses from market access restrictions, price discounts due to quarantine status, treatment and certification costs absorbed by growers, and foregone sales from movement prohibition on non-compliant lots.
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🚚 Shipper & Handler Compliance Cost
Model SF28-E.002
Calculate the total annual compliance cost burden for shippers, packers, and handlers operating within or sourcing from a Mexfly quarantine zone — covering APHIS PCIT certification, pre-shipment inspection fees, treatment facility costs, cold storage delays, and documentation overhead.
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📊 Program Benefit-Cost Ratio
Model SF28-E.003
Evaluate the full economic benefit-cost ratio of APHIS PPQ exotic fruit fly exclusion and eradication programs — comparing program investment against avoided commodity losses, protected export market access, and long-term establishment prevention value. Calibrated to published APHIS fruit fly BCR benchmarks of 7:1 to 12:1.
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⭐ EC Standalone Model
🧪 Mexfly SIT Economic Cost-Benefit
Model SF28-E.004 · EC.4007
Full economic analysis of Sterile Insect Technique deployment versus conventional bait spray treatment versus do-nothing scenarios — modeling cost per sterile fly release, suppression efficiency, eradication timeline, 3-scenario NPV comparison, and 10-year program economics. Anchored to APHIS–CDFA–Mexico Moscamed SIT program and FAO–IAEA guidelines.
3-Scenario ComparisonNPV AnalysisBCR vs APHIS BenchmarkMoscamed SIT CostsDA-2026-10 Reference