Quarantine impact modeling, detection cost analysis, geographic expansion risk scoring, and compliance cost science — grounded in USDA APHIS PPQ regulatory research and biosecurity standards.
Estimate the total economic impact of a fruit fly quarantine zone based on zone size, host commodity density within and adjacent to the boundary, regulated article movement restrictions, and treatment program costs — calibrated to APHIS PPQ DA-2026-10 La Mesa parameters.
Estimate the total APHIS PPQ detection and response operation cost from initial trap detection through active treatment — including trap network deployment, lab confirmation, delimiting survey expansion, treatment program, and APHIS–state cooperative mobilization cost.
Assess the probability and potential economic consequence of quarantine boundary expansion based on new detections, host density in adjacent areas, climate suitability for Mexfly establishment, and proximity to commercial agriculture — calibrated against the DA-2026-10 expansion precedent (77 → 82 sq mi in 5 days).
Calculate the total compliance cost burden for growers and shippers moving regulated host commodities out of a Mexfly quarantine zone — including APHIS PCIT certification fees, cold treatment, vapor heat, systems approach, or irradiation costs per shipment, and annual compliance burden as a percentage of revenue.